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Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Strategy

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Climate change strategies and plans

6. Vulnerability of the Catchment’s Natural Resources to Climate Change

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The vulnerability assessment is a combination of the impacts and adaptive capacity assessment (see figure 8 below). See figure 9, 10 and 11 below for the results of this assessment. Table 6 below outlines the criteria used to assess adaptive capacity.

Figure 8: Vulnerability assessment framework (adapted from Schröter undated by Clifton and Pelikan 2014).

Table 6: Adaptive capacity assessment criteria with rationale (Clifton and Pelikan 2014).

WEIGHTING EXPOSURE CRITERION CRITERION RATIONALE
1 Biodiversity and river health: level of protection provided by tenure The tenure of private and public land is classified in a way that indicates its likely exposure to pressures for disturbances, such as grazing, cultivation and timber harvesting. It is therefore considered indicative of adaptive capacity. Protective private land tenures include areas subject to management agreements and conservation covenants. Public land tenure looks at 64 tenure categories derived from the Public Land Management dataset.
2 Irrigation farming: access to irrigation supply Access to irrigation water supply is considered to be a key measure of adaptive capacity for agricultural land uses, as (in regulated water catchments) it reduces dependency on annual rainfalls.
3 Natural resource management works Previous engagement with NRM programs is considered to be a measure of planned adaptive capacity. All forms of NRM program works are considered, including, for example, fencing, revegetation, and waterway rehabilitation.
4 Land: whole farm or property planning Whole farm or property planning is widely used to establish a framework for improved and sustainable management of farming operations in dryland and irrigation areas. It typically leads to other environmental works, including improvements in irrigation layout and drainage and protection and enhancement of environmental assets.

As outlined, the vulnerability assessment maps reflects criteria for impacts (exposure and sensitivity) (see section 5) and adaptive capacity (see above).

See Appendix D for a map showing the independent results of the assessment of current (from the year 2014) adaptive capacity of the Catchment’s natural resources to climate change. Please note that ongoing investment in management actions will be required to maintain and increase adaptive capacity as climatic conditions change over time (see section 7.5 and 7.6).


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Figure 9: Vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s natural assets to climate change in scenario 2030 Figure 10: Vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s natural assets to climate change in scenario 2050 Figure 11: Vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s natural assets to climate change in scenario 2070

Please note: These maps are not intended to incorporate all decision-making elements but represent an assessment of climate change impact based on spatially-enabled criteria for exposure and sensitivity as part of a climate change vulnerability assessment. Vulnerability is used to highlight locations and issues to focus further analysis, including risk assessment and management. These maps should be considered in conjunction with the Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Natural Resource Management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria, 2016 in its entirety.

  1. Has the most appropriate information been used for the vulnerability assessment? If not, why? Please provide details of other information.
  2. Is the presentation of spatial data (i.e. the maps) easy to interpret? If not, why? How can this be improved?