Criteria for assessing the vulnerability of the Catchment’s natural resources to climate change and identifying priorities for adaptation were identified through (Clifton and Pelikan 2014):
- a review of the Goulburn Broken CMA’s regional NRM planning framework to understand and assess how climate change has been considered;
- an analysis of landscape processes that affect the condition of natural resources and current management actions to mitigate adverse impacts; and
- stakeholder engagement.
Landscape processes were represented using the Driver- Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model (see figure 2). The DPSIR analyses characterise landscape interactions that influence the condition and value of natural resources that may, in turn, be influenced by climate change. The DPSIR analyses include detail that seeks to explain the interconnection between the Driver, Pressure, State and Impact elements and document assumptions about the interactions and influence of specific factors. The model is not intended to represent the actual biophysical or ecological processes by which those interactions occur.
Social, technical, environmental, economic, political and legal aspects considered for Drivers and Pressures were identified from documented threats to natural resources. Characteristics of the current State (or condition) of natural resources was documented as were the likely Impacts on natural resource values or services. Types of management actions (Responses) specified in the planning framework were matched at the appropriate point(s) in the D-P-S-I chain.
The DPSIR analyses also include assessments of the magnitude (local-regional scale) and trend (improvement/decline) of influence of Drivers and Pressures on the State of natural resources. The recent historical trend in State and Impact was also assessed. Responses were classified in terms of their influence on the State of natural resources.
The DPSIR also accounts for the influence of climate change, based on mid-century climate change projections under a relatively high emissions pathway, and identified responses that are specific to climate change. This enabled a broad assessment of how climate change may influence landscape processes and the State (or condition) and value of natural resources.
Figure 2: The DPSIR model (Clifton and Pelikan 2014)